SMS scnews item created by John Ormerod at Fri 6 Mar 2015 1617
Type: Seminar
Distribution: World
Expiry: 13 Mar 2015
Calendar1: 13 Mar 2015 1400-1500
CalLoc1: Carslaw 173
Auth: jormerod@pjormerod5.pc (assumed)

# Statistics Seminar: Jennifer Chan -- Quantile regression for conditional autoregressive range model

Abstract:

To calculate value-at-risk (VaR) for risk management, we derive parametric quantile
functions. The general technique is to first build a mean regression model and then
estimate families of conditional quantile functions based on the mean regression
model. Instead, we propose to regress directly on the quantiles of a distribution
and demonstrate the method through the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model
which has increased popularity recently. Two flexible  distribution families: the
generalized beta type two on positive support and the generalized-t on real support
are adopted for demonstration. Then, the models are extended to model the volatility
dynamic and compared in terms of goodness-of-fit. The models are implemented using
the module  fminsearch in  Matlab  under the classical likelihood approach and
applied to analyse the intra-day high-low price ranges from the All Ordinaries index
for the Australian stock market to obtain value-at-risk forecasts. VaR are forecast
using the proposed models.


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