[symbol logo]     University of Sydney
[School of Mathematics and Statistics]
Applied Mathematics Seminar
    
  
 
University of Sydney> Maths & Stats> Research> Applied Mathematics Seminar> Abstracts
    

 
 

Jane Sexton
Geosciences Australia

From Source to Shore: Developing Tsunami Risk Assessments

Wednesday 16th May 14:05-14:55pm, Eastern Avenue Lecture Theatre.

The Australian coast is vulnerable to the impacts of tsunami due to its proximity to subduction zones in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Tsunami impacts in Australia may be magnified by the close proximity of the urban environment to the coast, the low relief of the coastal hinterland as well as local bathymetric effects. Numerous historic tsunami events have been recorded along the coastline, and following the December 26th 2004 tsunami event, the potential for far greater impacts have been recognised. As a result, the emergency management community is seeking to understand the relative risk of urban communities to the threat of tsunami.

The methodology to develop tsunami risk assessments will be outlined, particularly focussing on the computational modelling aspects of integrating the source and impact components. In particular, this will require coupling of probabilistic tsunami hazard outputs with hydrodynamic tsunami inundation components which are deterministic in nature. In addition, the crucial element of coupling vulnerability models within the impact modelling component will be described.

Detailed tsunami risk assessments have been conducted for a number of regions in collaboration with State Governments. The results highlight the need for detailed bathymetric and topographic data, computational resources, open standards and interoperability. These issues, along with questions regarding output sensitivity to data quality and topographic influences, will be discussed.